3-arm Study of Abiraterone Acetate Alone, Abiraterone Acetate Plus Degarelix, a GnRH Antagonist, and Degarelix Alone for Patients With Prostate Cancer With a Rising PSA or a Rising PSA and Nodal Disease Following Definitive Radical Prostatectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnheartpatients mustserumdl
  Phrases that lowered it: prostateparticipantpsaabirateronecastration
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 14 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 342 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 79 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 732 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Abiraterone, Radiotherapy and Short-Term Androgen Deprivation in Unfavorable Localized Prostate Cancer NCT01717053 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• IMAAGEN: Impact of Abiraterone Acetate in Prostate-Specific Antigen NCT01314118 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• S1014 Abiraterone Acetate in Treating Patients With Prostate Cancer Who Have Undergone Initial Hormone Therapy NCT01309672 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.