Study of the JAK Inhibitor Ruxolitinib Administered Orally to Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF), Post-Polycythemia Vera-Myelofibrosis (PPV-MF) or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia-Myelofibrosis (PET-MF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (117 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: petstagesafepatients willstarting
  Phrases that lowered it: openlabelextensionscreeningperiod
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Platform Study of Novel Ruxolitinib Combinations in Myelofibrosis Patients NCT04097821 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
• Study of Ruxolitinib (INCB018424) Sustained Release Formulation in Myelofibrosis Patients NCT01340651 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Idelalisib in Adults Receiving Ruxolitinib as Therapy for Primary, Post-Polycythemia Vera, or Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Progressive or Relapsed Disease NCT02436135 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Ruxolitinib (INCB018424) in Participants With Primary Myelofibrosis (PMF), Post Essential Thrombocythemia-myelofibrosis and Post Polycythemia Vera-myelofibrosis (PPV-MF) NCT01348490 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Panobinostat and Ruxolitinib in Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-polycythemia Vera-myelofibrosis or Post-essential Thrombocythemia-myelofibrosis NCT01433445 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.