Trial of Amrubicin as Second-Line Therapy in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Refractory Urothelial Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 22% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorcancertherapyprotocolradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: linesafety ofto evaluate109tract
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 34.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Single Agent Abraxane as Second Line Therapy in Bladder Cancer NCT00683059 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Cabazitaxel for Advanced Transitional Cell Carcinoma (TCC) NCT01600339 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy Before Surgery in Treating Patients With High Grade Upper Urinary Tract Cancer NCT02412670 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Trial With Vinflunine in Patients With Metastatic Bladder Cancer and Impaired Renal Function NCT02665039 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.