Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Peginterferon Beta-1a

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termsubjects withterm safetyextensionthe long
  Phrases that lowered it: visitparticipantsweekspeginterferontreated
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14709 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52633 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Peginterferon Beta-1a in Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis NCT00906399 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• BG00012 Phase 2 Combination Study in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01156311 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dose Safety Study of PEG-IFN in Healthy Volunteers NCT02125578 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Extension Study in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis Who Have Completed Study 205MS301 (NCT01064401) to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of BIIB019 NCT01797965 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• BG00012 Monotherapy Safety and Efficacy Extension Study in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT00835770 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.