Dose-Finding of Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Healthy Volunteers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 7% of the time (106 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2012-09-30, after 2011-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancereffectsheartinstitutionallimit
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthyfemalemalevolunteers -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 298 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 544 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 298 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Preventing Cancer in Healthy Volunteers NCT01935960 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Producing a Biologic Effect in Patients With Early Stage Breast Cancer NCT02876640 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Study of 9cUAB30 in Healthy Participants NCT00896974 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of INCB000631 When Administered Orally to Healthy Adult Participants NCT07039929 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
- Study of LEE011plus Cetuximab in Patients With a Cancer of the Head and Neck NCT02429089 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.