Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Producing a Biologic Effect in Patients With Early Stage Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 24% of the time (231 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2022-06-03, after 2018-03-16 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancereffectscarcinomapriorstage
Phrases that lowered it: participantmmnormalupperhypertension -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1155 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1155 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 166 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Preventing Cancer in Healthy Volunteers NCT01935960 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Dose-Finding of Retinoid 9cUAB30 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01336387 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Study of 9cUAB30 in Healthy Participants NCT00896974 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Bexarotene in Preventing Breast Cancer in Patients at High Risk for Breast Cancer NCT03323658 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Preoperative Window Opportunity Study With Giredestrant or Tamoxifen in Premenopausal Women With ER+/HER2[-] & Ki67≥10% NCT05659563 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.