Ampyra for Optic Neuritis in Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-12-31, after 2011-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboor equalequal topriorentry
Phrases that lowered it: visitsubjectsstudy willmultiple20 -
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 96 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 128 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 96 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 953 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 935 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dalfampridine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- MOdification of VIsual Outcomes After Optic Neuritis in CIS or MS by Gilenya (MOVING Study) NCT01647880 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
- A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicenter Study of the Effects of Glatiramer Acetate (GA) on the Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer (RNFL) and Visual Function in Patients With a First Episode of Acute Optic Neuritis (AON). (Octagon) NCT00856635 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- Fingolimod (FTY720) in Acute Demyelinating Optic Neuritis (ADON) NCT01757691 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
- Neuroprotection and Repair in Optic Neuritis NCT01073813 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
- Single Oral Doses Study of Nerispirdine on Visual Function in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT00772525 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.