Fingolimod (FTY720) in Acute Demyelinating Optic Neuritis (ADON)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painacuteplacebomay applyprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andmellitusdiabetessafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 307 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 549 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4556 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 10419 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• MOdification of VIsual Outcomes After Optic Neuritis in CIS or MS by Gilenya (MOVING Study) NCT01647880 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of Fingolimod in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01497262 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Fingolimod 0.5 mg Orally Once Daily Versus Placebo in Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy Patients. NCT01625182 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Disease Control and Safety in Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Switching From Natalizumab to Fingolimod NCT01499667 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• MS Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of Two Doses of Fingolimod Versus Copaxone NCT01633112 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.