Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Fingolimod 0.5 mg Orally Once Daily Versus Placebo in Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy Patients.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeborandomizationscorerituximabdiagnosis of
  Phrases that lowered it: weeksand safetysafety ofefficacy andevaluate
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 308 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 461 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Rozanolixizumab in Subjects With Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy NCT03861481 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Fingolimod in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01497262 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• MS Study Evaluating Safety and Efficacy of Two Doses of Fingolimod Versus Copaxone NCT01633112 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Disease Control and Safety in Patients With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Switching From Natalizumab to Fingolimod NCT01499667 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
• Fingolimod (FTY720) in Acute Demyelinating Optic Neuritis (ADON) NCT01757691 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.