Safety and Efficacy Study of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyerandomizationcornealstabletreatment of
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialepithelialevaluate theto evaluateefficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49500 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10475 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus NCT01643226 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus NCT01972854 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Safety & Efficacy of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus or Corneal Ectasia After Refractive Surgery NCT01459679 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Epi-on Corneal Cross-linking in Eyes With Progressive Keratoconus NCT03442751 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Corneal Collagen Cross-linking Following LASIK for Treatment of Hyperopia and Hyperopic Astigmatism NCT01893359 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.