Safety & Efficacy of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus or Corneal Ectasia After Refractive Surgery
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-08-31, after 2012-07-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: eyediagnosiscornealstableepithelial
Phrases that lowered it: weekefficacymonthvisitcompare -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 12 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49500 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10475 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 49500 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10475 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 69.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- riboflavin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus NCT01643226 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus NCT01344187 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy of Corneal Collagen Cross-Linking in Eyes With Keratoconus NCT01972854 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Epi-on Corneal Cross-linking in Eyes With Progressive Keratoconus NCT03442751 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- Corneal Crosslinking in Patients With Keratoconus and Post-Refractive Ectasia NCT01143389 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.