Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientcancerto determineheartdetermine whether
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomammmultiple14dexamethasone
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10104 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02204241 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study of Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed And/Or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients (CPD) NCT02185820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of the Safety and the Efficacy of Carfilzomib Combined With Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone (CCyd) or Lenalidomide and Dex (CRd) Followed by ASCT or 12 Cycles of Carf Combined With Dex and Len for Patients Eligible for ASCT With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma. NCT02203643 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Weekly 70 mg/m2 Carfilzomib for Multiple Myeloma Patients Refractory to 27 mg/m2 Carfilzomib NCT02294357 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• High-Dose Weekly Carfilzomib Plus Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in the Treatment of Relapsed Multiple Myeloma NCT02597062 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.