High-Dose Weekly Carfilzomib Plus Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in the Treatment of Relapsed Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: prostateregistrationmultiplemyelomacancer
  Phrases that lowered it: singleseveredialysisdays14
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 134138 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 32168 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase I/II Study of Carfilzomib, Pomalidomide and Dexamethasone in Relapsed And/Or Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients (CPD) NCT02185820 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Carfilzomib, Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone In Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT01346787 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Study of High Dose Carfilzomib in Multiple Myeloma Patients Who Have Progressed On Standard Dose Carfilzomib NCT01775553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Weekly 70 mg/m2 Carfilzomib for Multiple Myeloma Patients Refractory to 27 mg/m2 Carfilzomib NCT02294357 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• S1304, Carfilzomib and Dexamethasone for Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Myeloma NCT01903811 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.