Effect of Sildenafil on the Microcirculatory Blood Flow and Endothelial Progenitor Cells in Systemic Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisrandomizationplacebo controlledpurposeblind placebo
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theeffect ofto evaluatesmokingclinical trial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14264 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 83 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effect of Oral Temanogrel on Digital Blood Flow in Adult Participants With Raynaud's Phenomenon Secondary to Systemic Sclerosis NCT04915950 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Atorvastatin for Microvascular Endothelial Function and Raynaud in Early Diffuse Scleroderma NCT02370784 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Control Trial to Assess the Efficacy of Tadalafil in Raynaud's Phenomenon in Scleroderma NCT01117298 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Safety of GS-248 and Efficacy on Raynauds' Phenomenon in Systemic Sclerosis NCT04744207 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Subcutaneous Injection of Autologous Adipose Tissue-derived Stromal Vascular Fraction Into the Fingers of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis NCT02558543 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.