Subcutaneous Injection of Autologous Adipose Tissue-derived Stromal Vascular Fraction Into the Fingers of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiacellspatientstissuetherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: infectedsubjectsprescription20clinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 75 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 71 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 74 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Of Fat Micrografts With Adipose-Derived Stromal Vascular Fraction In Hands Of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis NCT04387825 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Trial of Topical C-82 in Systemic Sclerosis - A Phase I/II Biomarker and Safety Trial NCT02349009 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation for Progressive Systemic Sclerosis NCT01895244 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of STI571 (Imatinib Mesylate) for the Treatment of Fibrosis in Participants With Systemic Sclerosis NCT00613171 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Treatment of Refractory Sever Systemic Scleroderma by Injection of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT02213705 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.