Treatment of Refractory Sever Systemic Scleroderma by Injection of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-06-16, after 2014-05-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: transplantstemventricularheartrecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: sclerosisrespiratoryaccordingsuspectedsystemic -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 362 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 174 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 362 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 174 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Cardiac Safe Transplants for Systemic Sclerosis NCT03593902 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
- Autologous Stem Cell Systemic Sclerosis Immune Suppression Trial NCT01445821 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Scleroderma Treatment With Autologous Transplant (STAT) Study NCT01413100 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Infusion of Allogeneic Stromal Mesenchymal Stem Cells From Wharton´s Jelly in Patients With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis With Refractory Pulmonary Involvement to Treatment NCT07542067 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation for Progressive Systemic Sclerosis NCT01895244 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.