Cardiac Safe Transplants for Systemic Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-10-09, after 2018-05-17 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mritransplantsclerosisstemventricular
Phrases that lowered it: lungeffect ofnormal14patients with -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 422 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 231472 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 44514 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 8 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 422 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 109 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 8 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 231472 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 44514 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cyclophosphamide, filgrastim, fludarabine, mesna, methylprednisolone, methylprednisolone hemisuccinate, rabbit, rituximab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Autologous Stem Cell Systemic Sclerosis Immune Suppression Trial NCT01445821 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- Treatment of Refractory Sever Systemic Scleroderma by Injection of Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells NCT02213705 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Scleroderma Treatment With Autologous Transplant (STAT) Study NCT01413100 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- RIC alloBMT With Post-transplant Cyclophosphamide for Refractory Systemic Sclerosis NCT05298358 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated
- Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant for Sickle Cell Disease NCT02065596 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.