Oral Prednisolone in Severe Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (84 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-06-30, after 2010-04-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutefailureventilationchronicsevere
Phrases that lowered it: copdpatientsaccordingcorticosteroidsexacerbation -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17482 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4029 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 97.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- prednisolone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy of Helium/Oxygen Compared to Air/Oxygen in Severe Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01155310 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- Proof-of-Concept Study to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of SAR440340 (Anti-IL-33 mAb) in Patients With Moderate-to-severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT03546907 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Inhaled Corticosteroids (ICS) on Pulmonary Endothelial Function in COPD NCT05607719 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Different Doses of Indacaterol in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) NCT01089127 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study in Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (FAIR) NCT01351792 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.