Inhaled Corticosteroids (ICS) on Pulmonary Endothelial Function in COPD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (143 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularbaselinepriorrestto determine
  Phrases that lowered it: copdfev1smokingicsbronchodilator
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 365 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 24-week Arterial Stiffness Study With Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol in COPD NCT01336608 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Anti-Platelets in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT05567562 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• Efficacy of Simvastatin for the Treatment of COPD NCT02070133 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of Fluticasone Furoate/Vilanterol on Survival in Subjects With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease NCT01313676 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Compare the Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ASA Powder for Oral Inhalation With Non-enteric-coated Chewable Aspirin in Adult Subjects With Obstructive or Restrictive Pulmonary Function NCT05625347 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.