THE IPI - Trial in Advanced Melanoma: Melanoma Patients With Advanced Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-09-30, after 2011-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationmelanomacancerbraineffective
Phrases that lowered it: trialocularclinicaland safetyefficacy and -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 358 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 316 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Pilot Study of Ipilumimab and Radiation in Poor Prognosis Melanoma NCT01996202 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Ipilimumab + Temozolomide in Metastatic Melanoma NCT01119508 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Selective HDAC6 Inhibitor ACY-241 in Combination With Ipilimumab and Nivolumab NCT02935790 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- High-Dose Aldesleukin and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT02203604 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
- Ipilimumab and Local Radiation for Selected Solid Tumors NCT01769222 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.