A Pilot Study of Ipilumimab and Radiation in Poor Prognosis Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationheadneckpatients mustmelanoma
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidof tumorsafety ofproducts
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 110 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 327 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• THE IPI - Trial in Advanced Melanoma: Melanoma Patients With Advanced Disease NCT01355120 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Autologous TriMix-DC Therapeutic Vaccine in Combination With Ipilimumab in Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma NCT01302496 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Trial of Neoadjuvant Ipilimumab Followed by Melphalan Via Isolated Limb Infusion for Patients With Unresectable In-transit Extremity Melanoma NCT02115243 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab and Local Radiation for Selected Solid Tumors NCT01769222 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• High-Dose Aldesleukin and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT02203604 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.