A Multi-center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety of GSK716155 and Its Effects on Myocardial Metabolism, Myocardial Function, and Exercise Capacity in Patients With NYHA Class II/III Congestive Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-09-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailuremyocardialventricularchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: effectat screeningevaluate thethe efficacyto evaluate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 450 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1243 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A First Time in Human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of GSK2798745 in Healthy Subjects and Stable Heart Failure Patients NCT02119260 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Single Dose Escalation Study of GSK2838232 in Healthy Subjects NCT01802918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• Study of JK07 in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (HFrEF) NCT04210375 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Human Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single & Repeat Escalating Doses of GSK2878175 in Healthy Subjects NCT01879462 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Cross-Over Study to Assess the Cardiovascular Effects of GSK2336805 NCT01424540 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.