A First Time in Human Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of GSK2798745 in Healthy Subjects and Stable Heart Failure Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-12-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1964 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 317 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartplacebo controlledsafety tolerabilityfailuresubject
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyeffect ofpharmacokineticssingleevaluate the
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multi-center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety of GSK716155 and Its Effects on Myocardial Metabolism, Myocardial Function, and Exercise Capacity in Patients With NYHA Class II/III Congestive Heart Failure NCT01357850 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Single Dose Escalation Study of GSK2838232 in Healthy Subjects NCT01802918 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A First Time in Human Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single & Repeat Escalating Doses of GSK2878175 in Healthy Subjects NCT01879462 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Repeat Dose Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Safety Study of GSK2838232 With and Without Ritonavir (RTV) Conducted in Healthy Subjects NCT02289495 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated
• A Single Dose Pharmacokinetic (PK) and Safety Study of GSK2838232 With and Without Ritonavir (RTV) Conducted in Healthy Subjects NCT02289482 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.