Effects of Contingency Management and Nicotine Replacement Therapy on Youth Smoking
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-01-31, after 2011-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseasecmplacebothe followingcomplete
Phrases that lowered it: smokingparticipantsnicotineallergyparticipant -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 25.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: basic science (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 16734 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 13 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 21 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 103 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 71 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16734 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2360 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 25.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 3.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Human Laboratory Study of Varenicline and Bupropion for Nicotine Dependence NCT00749658 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Adaptive Use of Nicotine Substitution to Maintain Smoking Reduction/Abstinence in Nicotine Responders NCT06554873 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of Abuse Liability of Very Low Nicotine (VLN) Mentholated Cigarettes NCT03559725 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Abuse Liability of Reduced Nicotine Content Cigarettes in the Context of Concurrent E-Cigarette Use NCT02870218 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.