An Open-label Study of GSK1120212 Compared With Docetaxel in Stage IV KRAS-mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancermetastaticnsclcadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetythe efficacysafety ofhistory or
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 428 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1474 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib Plus Tivantinib (ARQ 197) Versus Single Agent Chemotherapy in Locally Advanced or Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01395758 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib Study of LXH254-centric Combinations in NSCLC or Melanoma NCT02974725 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability Study of GSK1120212, a MEK Inhibitor, in Combination With Docetaxel, Erlotinib, Pemetrexed, Pemetrexed + Carboplatin, Pemetrexed + Cisplatin, or Nab-Paclitaxel NCT01192165 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• A Study of BMS-986315 and Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy in Participants With First-line Stage IV or Recurrent Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT06094296 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Assess Efficacy and Safety of AZD6244 in Combination With Docetaxel in Patients Receiving Second Line Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Treatment. NCT01750281 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.