Complete Neoadjuvant Treatment for REctal Cancer (CONTRE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancerthe patientstagepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: patientscolorectalcardiovascularoxaliplatinadenocarcinoma
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 22845 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3510 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NEO: Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy, Excision and Observation for Early Rectal Cancer NCT03259035 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Total Neoadjuvant Treatment Without Surgery For Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT03565029 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Capecitabine, Irinotecan Hydrochloride, Cetuximab, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients Undergoing Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT00972881 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Before or After Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT02363374 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin, and Fluorouracil Before and After Radiation Therapy and Surgery in Treating Patients With Rectal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01263171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.