NEO: Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy, Excision and Observation for Early Rectal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-04-25, after 2018-06-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagechemotherapypriorcancermri
Phrases that lowered it: patientssolidkgparticipantsenrolment -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 15 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 15 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Complete Neoadjuvant Treatment for REctal Cancer (CONTRE) NCT01363843 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
- Total Neoadjuvant Treatment Without Surgery For Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT03565029 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Oxaliplatin, Leucovorin, and Fluorouracil Before and After Radiation Therapy and Surgery in Treating Patients With Rectal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01263171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Induction Chemotherapy Before or After Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and Surgery for Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer NCT02363374 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- SHOrt Course Radiation and TASOX (TAS102 Plus Oxaliplatin) Chemotherapy in Operable Rectal Cancer NCT04417699 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.