Efficacy and Safety of Pirfenidone in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pulmonaryrandomized doubleplaceborandomizationdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmaeffecttrialsafetyvital
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 52.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• (ARTEMIS-IPF) Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness of Ambrisentan in IPF NCT00768300 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• Macitentan Use in an Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Clinical Study NCT00903331 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Zephyrus I: Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Pamrevlumab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT03955146 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating INS018_055 Administered Orally to Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT05938920 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Zephyrus II: Efficacy and Safety Study of Pamrevlumab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT04419558 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.