Efficacy and Tolerability of Artesunate Amodiaquine Versus Chloroquine in the Treatment of Uncomplicated Plasmodium Vivax Malaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (876 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityhourspatient potentialnot intendedall considerations
  Phrases that lowered it: childrenof bloodtrialsignefficacy and
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 614 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.5 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 89 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Compare the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Combinations of 3 Anti-malarial Drugs Against Combinations of 2 Anti-malarial Drugs (Asia) NCT03939104 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• DHA-PQP vs Chloroquine and Primaquine for Radical Cure of Vivax Malaria in Brazil NCT03208907 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Compare the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Combinations of 3 Anti-malarial Drugs Against Combina-tions of 2 Anti-malarial Drugs. NCT03923725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Pyronaridine-artesunate for the Treatment in Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria NCT02389439 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Ferroquine With Artesunate in African Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT00988507 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.