Dose Ranging Study of Ferroquine With Artesunate in African Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: vaccineassessdosemethodchild
  Phrases that lowered it: participants withhcvpharmacokineticspresenceclinical
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 199 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• To Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose Regimen of Ferroquine and Artefenomel in Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT02497612 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Study to Investigate the Clinical and Parasiticidal Activity and Pharmacokinetics of Different Doses of Artefenomel and Ferroquine in Patients With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT03660839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Tolerability, PK of OZ439 in Adults With Acute, Uncomplicated P.Falciparum or Vivax Malaria Mono-infection NCT01213966 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Gametocytocidal and Transmission-blocking Efficacy of PQ in Combination With AL and TQ in Combination With SPAQ in Mali NCT05081089 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• OZ439 PhIIa Study in Plasmodium Falciparum: Extended Observation NCT01713621 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.