OZ439 PhIIa Study in Plasmodium Falciparum: Extended Observation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientsdefinedor equalequal to
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokinetichealthpharmacokineticstimesnormal
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Tolerability, PK of OZ439 in Adults With Acute, Uncomplicated P.Falciparum or Vivax Malaria Mono-infection NCT01213966 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Ferroquine With Artesunate in African Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT00988507 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• To Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose Regimen of Ferroquine and Artefenomel in Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT02497612 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Study to Investigate the Clinical and Parasiticidal Activity and Pharmacokinetics of Different Doses of Artefenomel and Ferroquine in Patients With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT03660839 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• DSM265 Phase IIa Investigation Treating Plasmodium Falciparum or Vivax NCT02123290 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.