Efficacy, Tolerability, PK of OZ439 in Adults With Acute, Uncomplicated P.Falciparum or Vivax Malaria Mono-infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hepatitishcvinfectionchronicconsiderations
  Phrases that lowered it: oralefficacyadultaccordingperiod
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 12 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, infectious disease: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OZ439 PhIIa Study in Plasmodium Falciparum: Extended Observation NCT01713621 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Dose Ranging Study of Ferroquine With Artesunate in African Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT00988507 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• DSM265 Phase IIa Investigation Treating Plasmodium Falciparum or Vivax NCT02123290 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of a Single Dose Regimen of Ferroquine and Artefenomel in Adults and Children With Uncomplicated Plasmodium Falciparum Malaria NCT02497612 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Pyronaridine-artesunate for the Treatment in Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria NCT02389439 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.