Choosing Opioid Management for Pain and Analyzing Acute Chest Syndrome (ACS) Rates Equally

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 27% of the time (33 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-10-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painacutepatientcellsickle
  Phrases that lowered it: trialsubjectsblind19participants
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 19 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pain Management in Children and Young Adults With Sickle Cell Disease NCT01954927 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Sodium Nitrite in Sickle Cell Disease NCT01033227 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Sickle Cell Patients Hospitalized in Pain Crisis With Prophylactic Dose Low-molecular-weight Heparin (LMWH) Versus Placebo NCT01419977 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Study of Varespladib Infusion in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease. NCT01522196 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Assessing the Safety of Buprenorphine in People With Sickle Cell Disease NCT03492099 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.