Pain Management in Children and Young Adults With Sickle Cell Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painacutehourscarepost
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantscombinationclinical trialefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10610 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 20 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 60271 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 72 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 20 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Choosing Opioid Management for Pain and Analyzing Acute Chest Syndrome (ACS) Rates Equally NCT01380197 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of Eptifibatide in Patients With Sickle Cell Disease NCT00834899 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Sickle Cell Patients Hospitalized in Pain Crisis With Prophylactic Dose Low-molecular-weight Heparin (LMWH) Versus Placebo NCT01419977 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Safety and Impact of SelG1 With or Without Hydroxyurea Therapy in Sickle Cell Disease Patients With Pain Crises NCT01895361 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Sodium Nitrite in Sickle Cell Disease NCT01033227 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.