A 24-Week Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Rivastigmine Patch Study in Patients With Probable Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilitydoublealzheimerdementiarandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: patch20and safetythe efficacyefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 283 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 306 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4238 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized, Double-blind Study to Evaluate the Tolerability of 2 Different Titration Methods of Rivastigmine Patch in AD Patients (MMSE 10-20) NCT01614886 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Dose Finding, PK/PD and 12 Month Exploratory Efficacy Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT02244541 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetic Study of EVP-6124 in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT00766363 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Study of XPro1595 in Patients With Early Alzheimer's Disease With Biomarkers of Inflammation NCT05318976 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Study Versus E2020 10mg Followed by an Open-label Extension Phase to Explore the Safety of E2020 SR 23 mg in Japanese Subjects With Severe Alzheimer's Type Dementia NCT01276353 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.