Phase 2a Dose Finding, PK/PD and 12 Month Exploratory Efficacy Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2016-11-30, after 2014-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipledsmcognitivediagnosisdisorder
Phrases that lowered it: bioavailabilityclinicaldiseasesmoderatetrial -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Extension Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT02756858 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- OLE of Phase 2b/3 Study ANAVEX2-73-AD-004 NCT04314934 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ABBV-8E12 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02880956 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of 26-Week Treatment of AR1001 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03625622 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.