OLE of Phase 2b/3 Study ANAVEX2-73-AD-004

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-06-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensionadalzheimercompletedsuicidal
  Phrases that lowered it: participantdrugevaluate theto evaluateurine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• OLE Study for Patients With Parkinson's Disease With Dementia Enrolled in Study ANAVEX2-73-PDD-001 NCT04575259 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Dose Finding, PK/PD and 12 Month Exploratory Efficacy Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT02244541 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• An Extension Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT02756858 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• 2-Year Extension Study of Azeliragon in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (STEADFAST Extension) NCT02916056 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• ANAVEX2-73 for Treatment of Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03790709 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.