2-Year Extension Study of Azeliragon in Subjects With Alzheimer's Disease (STEADFAST Extension)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: the subjectsubjectsalzheimerextensionecg
  Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientsinteractionfaceopen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Xanamem™ in Subjects With Mild Dementia Due to AD (XanADu) NCT02727699 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• This is a Safety and Tolerability Study Evaluating a New Treatment for Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01676935 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability Study Evaluating a New Treatment for Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01690195 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating Safety, Tolerability, and PK of Multiple Ascending Doses of GC021109 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT02386306 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Participants With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease (MK-8931-019) NCT01953601 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.