Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Participants With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease (MK-8931-019)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrialzheimeradscreeningimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyparticipantsefficacy andsafety ofthe trial
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 997 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (P07738) NCT01739348 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of MK-7622 as Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-7622-012) NCT01852110 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of RPh201 Treatment in Individuals With Alzheimer's Disease With or Without Coexisting Cerebrovascular Disease NCT03462121 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2a Study to Investigate REM0046127 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT05478031 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.