Efficacy and Safety of MK-7622 as Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease (MK-7622-012)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-04-11, after 2013-10-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “efficacy”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placeboqtreceivemonthsthe trial
Phrases that lowered it: participantmoderateparticipantsprostatemild -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past trials: 993 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 145 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 55 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 993 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 145 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- An Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (P07738) NCT01739348 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of MK-1942 as an Adjunct Therapy in Participants With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Dementia (MK-1942-008) NCT05602727 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety Trial of Verubecestat (MK-8931) in Participants With Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease (MK-8931-019) NCT01953601 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of MK-1167 in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease Dementia Taking Stable Donepezil Treatment (MK-1167-007) NCT06285240 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Study of RO4602522 in Participants With Moderate Severity Alzheimer Disease on Background Alzheimer Disease Therapy NCT01677754 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.