A Study of RO4602522 in Participants With Moderate Severity Alzheimer Disease on Background Alzheimer Disease Therapy
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-06-12, after 2012-10-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: alzheimermoderatedisordersmentaldisease
Phrases that lowered it: or equalequal toparticipantsscreeningparticipant -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 570 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 220 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 90 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 90 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 570 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 220 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 18035 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3841 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- donepezil, galantamine, memantine, rivastigmine, sembragiline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of BAC in Patient With Alzheimer's Disease or Vascular Dementia NCT02886494 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study of Bryostatin in Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease Subjects Not On Memantine NCT03560245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- A Study of RO7105705 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Mild-to-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT02820896 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- Alzheimer Disease Proof of Concept Study With BI 409306 Versus Placebo NCT02240693 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- Safety Study of a Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3 (GSK3) Inhibitor in Patients With Alzheimer´s Disease NCT00948259 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.