A Comparative Study of Adapalene Gel,0.3% Versus Tretinoin Emollient Cream, 0.05% for the Treatment of Photoaging
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-11-30, after 2013-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapycancerivcellmonths
Phrases that lowered it: topicalfacegelevaluate thefacial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 35 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 55 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1316 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 303 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- adapalene, tretinoin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Randomized and Open Label Study for Safety and Efficacy of DBI-102 vs. Vehicle vs. Hydroquinone on Skin Pigmentation and Lentigos NCT05511948 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Safety and Efficacy Study of AM001 Cream in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT03210740 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- To Compare Safety and Efficacy of Perrigo's Drug Compared to an FDA Approved Drug in the Treatment of Actinic Keratosis NCT02459795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Adapalene Gel 0.3% Versus Tretinoin 0.05% Emollient Cream for Treatment of Photodamage NCT00647556 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- An Equivalence Study of Generic Ingenol Mebutate Gel 0.015% and Picato Gel 0.015% in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis NCT03200912 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.