Randomized and Open Label Study for Safety and Efficacy of DBI-102 vs. Vehicle vs. Hydroquinone on Skin Pigmentation and Lentigos

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcancerdiseaseabilitymonths of
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalgelvehicledailydermatitis
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 20.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1764 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Comparative Study of Adapalene Gel,0.3% Versus Tretinoin Emollient Cream, 0.05% for the Treatment of Photoaging NCT01406080 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• W0265-104: A Single-Center, Evaluator-Blinded, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Phase 1 Clinical Trial Evaluating the Photoallergic Potential of Topically Applied Clindamycin Phosphate 1.0% and Tretinoin 0.025% (CT Gel) in Healthy Volunteers NCT01915758 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• W0265-103: A Single-Center, Evaluator-Blinded, Randomized, Placebo Controlled, Phase 1 Clinical Trial Evaluating The Phototoxic Potential Of Topically Applied Clindamycin 1.0% - Tretinoin 0.025% Gel (Ct Gel) In Healthy Volunteers NCT01929278 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy Imiquimod Cream, 2.5% in Participants With Actinic Keratoses NCT02120898 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• An Equivalence Study of Generic Ingenol Mebutate Gel 0.015% and Picato Gel 0.015% in Subjects With Actinic Keratosis NCT03200912 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.