Cixutumumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Melanoma of the Eye

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapypatients mustblockradiationbiologic
  Phrases that lowered it: fastingpatients wholesionsliverweeks
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 302 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 530 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Assess the Tolerability of a Bispecific Targeted Biologic IMCgp100 in Malignant Melanoma NCT01211262 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of IMC-A12 in Patients With Mesothelioma Who Have Been Previously Treated With Chemotherapy NCT01160458 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• THE IPI - Trial in Advanced Melanoma: Melanoma Patients With Advanced Disease NCT01355120 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Study of Intratumoral IMO-2125 in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT03052205 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of IMCgp100 Versus Investigator Choice in Advanced Uveal Melanoma NCT03070392 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.