The Study of Quantitative Serial Trends in Lipids With ApolpoproteinA-I Stimulation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: coronaryheartventricularleftartery
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectscontraceptivehepaticfemalerosuvastatin
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Characterization of Multi-dose RVX000222 in Combination With Statin Treatment in Dyslipidemia NCT01863225 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated
• ApoA-I Synthesis Stimulation and Intravascular Ultrasound for Coronary Atheroma Regression Evaluation NCT01067820 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Trial of Antroquinonol in Patients With Hypercholesterolemia and Hyperlipidemia NCT02719028 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of Administering Multiple Oral Doses of GSK1292263 Alone and With Atorvastatin NCT01218204 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study) NCT03207945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.