Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (381 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectscreeningsubjectspetimaging
  Phrases that lowered it: weeksmgstatinpatients200
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 21.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 655 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 177 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Bococizumab HIV Evaluation (B-HIVE) Study NCT02524106 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study to Evaluate the Effect of an Inclisiran First Implementation Strategy Compared to Usual Care in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Elevated LDL-C Despite Receiving Maximally Tolerated Statin Therapy (VICTORION-INITIATE) NCT04929249 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Endothelial Function, Lipoproteins, and Inflammation With Low HDL Cholesterol in HIV: ER Niacin Versus Fenofibrate NCT01426438 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) Administration to Decrease Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL) and Inflammation in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Patients (CALIBER) (MK-7110-003) NCT03960541 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Atorvastatin on Biomarkers of Inflammation, Coagulopathy, Angiogenesis & T-cells NCT01351025 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.