A Randomized Study to Evaluate the Effect of an Inclisiran First Implementation Strategy Compared to Usual Care in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease and Elevated LDL-C Despite Receiving Maximally Tolerated Statin Therapy (VICTORION-INITIATE)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapyheartfailurediseasecoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantscreeninginvestigatorthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1389 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 140 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate the Effect of ALN-PCSSC Treatment on Low Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C) NCT02597127 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• A Study of Inclisiran in Participants With Homozygous Familial Hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) NCT03851705 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study) NCT03207945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and the Safety of Single Pill Combination (SPC) Ezetimibe/Rosuvastatin in Chinese Adult Patients With Primary Hypercholesterolemia Not Adequately Controlled on Statin Therapy NCT04669041 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of Evolocumab in Addition to Optimal Stable Background Statin Therapy in Chinese Participants With Primary Hypercholesterolemia and Mixed Dyslipidemia NCT03433755 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.