Endothelial Function, Lipoproteins, and Inflammation With Low HDL Cholesterol in HIV: ER Niacin Versus Fenofibrate
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-10-31, after 2011-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerstudy entrychemotherapydlprior
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbloodeffect ofsubjectsdaily -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 70.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 126312 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 126312 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 25278 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 70.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin, fenofibrate, niacin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of PCSK9 Inhibition on Cardiovascular Risk in Treated HIV Infection (EPIC-HIV Study) NCT03207945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Efprezimod Alfa (CD24Fc, MK-7110) Administration to Decrease Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL) and Inflammation in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Patients (CALIBER) (MK-7110-003) NCT03960541 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
- Atorvastatin on Biomarkers of Inflammation, Coagulopathy, Angiogenesis & T-cells NCT01351025 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Extended Release (ER) Niacin/Laropiprant When Added to Ongoing Lipid-Modifying Therapy in Patients With High Cholesterol or Abnormal Lipid Levels (MK-0524A-133) NCT01274559 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
- Modulation of Immune Activation by Aspirin NCT02155985 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.