Modulation of Immune Activation by Aspirin
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-07-31, after 2014-08-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerulnhearttherapyentry
Phrases that lowered it: alcoholvolunteerssingleproductsblood -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 23 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 9 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 186969 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 32381 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Targeting Platelets in Chronic HIV Infection NCT02578706 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Atorvastatin on Biomarkers of Inflammation, Coagulopathy, Angiogenesis & T-cells NCT01351025 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Elite Controller and ART-treated HIV+ Statin Versus ASA Treatment Intervention Study NCT02081638 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Safety and Effectiveness of Low-Dose Methotrexate for Reducing Inflammation in HIV-Infected Adults on ARV Medications NCT01949116 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Anti-inflammatory Effects of Letermovir (Prevymis) in Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 and Asymptomatic Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Who Are on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy, Plus Its Effect on Chronic Inflammation, HIV Persistence and Other Clinical Outcomes. NCT04840199 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.