Targeting Platelets in Chronic HIV Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycancerchemotherapyulnentry
  Phrases that lowered it: alcoholsingleproductshiv infectedparticipants
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 56 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Modulation of Immune Activation by Aspirin NCT02155985 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Atorvastatin on Biomarkers of Inflammation, Coagulopathy, Angiogenesis & T-cells NCT01351025 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• AIDS 347: IL-6 Blockade in Treated HIV Infection NCT02049437 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Safety and Effectiveness of Low-Dose Methotrexate for Reducing Inflammation in HIV-Infected Adults on ARV Medications NCT01949116 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Anti-inflammatory Effects of Letermovir (Prevymis) in Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-1 and Asymptomatic Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Who Are on Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy, Plus Its Effect on Chronic Inflammation, HIV Persistence and Other Clinical Outcomes. NCT04840199 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.